Saturday, November 5, 2022

Some thoughts on solar (in the US context) - interview for MoneyGeek.com

I really enjoyed responding to the questions below and was pleasantly surprised my full responses were posted as such online. This is more fun because most times I spend 30 minutes talking to a reporter and get mentioned  at most once if at all and they generally miss the most important or insightful thing I thought I had to say. This format is a lot more exciting for me and honest from a reader's perspective. The full article as part of which my responses were posted is here - Electricity Bill Got You Down? Solar Panels in Your State Might Not Be as Expensive as You Think

Considering the federal incentives for solar technology in the recent Inflation Reduction Act, why have some states not added additional state-level incentives to make solar panel usage even more enticing?

Firstly, I am not sure which states you are referring to specifically. If you see the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency®, it suggests almost every state has a few incentives, and I think most of these predate the IRA 2022. That said, in general, it is easier to hazard a guess why a policy was enacted than why it wasn't. If it wasn't, it most likely means there wasn't enough lobbying, which, in turn, might be because the industry is still in its infancy in that state or it isn't a huge market, which begs the question of why. And the answer to that could be less solar potential or because of cheap electricity.

My observation and hypothesis are that electricity prices are growing at a faster rate in states where solar and wind are penetrating the fastest. This needs to be tested, but rates have shot up in the last several years when renewables have also expanded aggressively. So I am not entirely convinced renewable electricity has lowered energy prices, even if it is cheaper to produce at certain times of the day and in certain locations.

In California, my average electricity price from Southern California Edison after adding all costs (fixed + gen + delivery) is in excess of $0.29 per kW-hr. And despite this high price of electricity, the payback on the solar panel is 10 years for me after the 30% tax credit on upfront cost and generous net metering that cannot be sustained in the long run without raising costs for non-PV owners. This is also too slow for the middle class, let alone lower-income homeowners. For the wealthy, it is not about cost savings for those who choose to install.

How can solar panels help the average homeowner to save money?

I am not entirely convinced we need to aggressively push solar on rooftops. Despite tax credits and net metering, the payback period for most people is probably long (eight to 10 years for me) but still less than the expected life of 20+ years. Utility-scale solar, I think, is a better investment of taxpayer subsidies instead of individual rooftops. Yes, rooftop solar provides some social benefits, and to that extent, we need to help private homeowners install them. But it is so expensive that despite what policymakers do, it is wealthier people who are going to afford it. There are also issues with the quality of the roof, etc., which poor households might need help with. Should we help lower-income homeowners install? I am not too sure, for they could be better helped in other ways to provide them with what they need, more like ensuring their electricity rate is low up to a certain minimum level for monthly use for basic needs and ensuring they have reliable access.

What are some of the barriers to the broader adoption of solar technologies?

In my opinion, it is that despite all the hoopla in the U.S., it is hard to take most of our fellow countrymen seriously when they complain about energy costs, for despite all this, energy costs are quite low as a fraction of monthly budgets, and any increase could be accommodated by being prudent in what one spends on. Energy costs are a small fraction of homeownership for people who can afford a home, and if so, is the money better spent elsewhere? We need to help people buy more efficient products and get them to use less energy rather than help them fuel their inefficient use in cleaner but costly ways.

Despite all this, I am a big believer that we need a lot more solar and wind and a lot less coal. Just not sure if it needs to be rooftops of the wealthy or the poor! Lastly, today one cannot also ignore inflation, which has increased panel and installation costs and financing costs because of rising interest rates.